Fresno State vs. San Jose State odds, line: 2021 college football picks, Week 13 predictions from proven model

The Fresno State Bulldogs aim to close a strong 2021 regular season on a high note on Thursday. Fresno State visits the San Jose State Spartans in a Thanksgiving afternoon matchup between Mountain West rivals. Fresno State is 8-3 overall and 5-2 in Mountain West play this season. San Jose State is 5-6 overall and 3-4 against conference foes in 2021. Fresno State can win its division with a victory and a San Diego State loss to Boise State.

Kickoff is at 3:30 p.m. ET in San Jose, Calif. The latest Fresno State vs. San Jose State odds from Caesars Sportsbook list the Bulldogs as 7.5-point favorites. The over-under for total points is set at 52.5. Before making any San Jose State vs. Fresno State picks, be sure to check out the college football predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,700 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters Week 13 of the 2021 season on a 39-25 run on all top-rated college football side picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has locked in on Fresno State vs. SJSU and just revealed its picks and CFB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are the CFB odds and betting lines for SJSU vs. Fresno State:  

  • Fresno State vs. San Jose State spread: Fresno State -7.5
  • Fresno State vs. San Jose State over-under: 52.5 points
  • Fresno State vs. San Jose State money line: Fresno State -290, SJSU +235
  • FRES: The Bulldogs are 7-4 against the spread this season
  • SJSU: The Spartans are 5-6 against the spread in 2021

Featured Game | San Jose State Spartans vs. Fresno State Bulldogs

Why Fresno State can cover

Fresno State is potent on both sides of the ball, but the offense is particularly strong. Senior quarterback Jake Haener is No. 2 in the Mountain West with 3,467 passing yards, averaging 8.4 yards per pass attempt with 28 touchdowns and only nine interceptions. Haener is paired with two of the top eight pass-catchers in the Mountain West, with Jalen Cropper tied for the MWC lead with 10 touchdown catches and Josh Kelly producing 48 catches for 742 yards. 

On the ground, Ronnie Rivers is generating 4.9 yards per carry, with 70 rushing yards or more in five straight contests. As a team, Fresno State leads the Mountain West in total offense, producing 461.5 yards per game, and the Bulldogs are in the top two of the conference in passing yards, completion rate, yards per pass attempt and passing touchdowns. Wrapping it all together, Fresno State is converting 42 percent of third-down opportunities this season, and the Bulldogs rank second in the Mountain West with 33 points per game.

Why San Jose State can cover

The Spartans are keyed by their defense, with San Jose State allowing only 360.8 yards per game this season. San Jose State is also a top-five team in the conference in rushing defense (134.9 yards allowed per game), yards per carry allowed (3.5), yards per pass attempt allowed (6.7) and sacks (27). Junior linebacker Kyle Harmon leads the Mountain West with 122 tackles, which also ranks second in the nation. The Spartans also have several bright spots on offense. 

San Jose State has allowed only 18 sacks this season, third-fewest in the conference, and the Spartans are putting up 4.2 yards per carry. Senior running back Tyler Nevens has 711 rushing yards and seven touchdowns, with senior tight end Derrick Deese Jr. ranking second among MWC tight ends with 44 catches for 687 yards and four touchdowns. Finally, San Jose State is a quality unit on special teams, headlined by top-three averages in punting and net punting.

How to make Fresno State vs. San Jose State picks

The model is going under on the total, projecting 51 combined points. It also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine

So who wins San Jose State vs. Fresno State? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread to back, all from the advanced model on a 39-25 run on its top-rated college football side picks, and find out.

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